Wednesday, March 28, 2012

How Not To Poll

Let me quote Dr. Aaron Lerner from IMRA on two issues I have discussed previously which are (a) the dissonance of Israelis, admitting their pessimism and disbelief of the otherside while expressing optimistic hope nevertheless and (b) the unwillingness of Israeli pollsters to really find out the most important things based on this recent poll, Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll, March 2012 :-
IMRA contacted Prof. Yaacov Shamir, Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace Hebrew University, to follow up on the finding of his recent poll that 64% of Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) think that the goal of the Palestinians is to destroy Israel (42% destroy Israel and kill the Jews ,  22% destroy Israel but apparently not kill the Jews). IMRA asked Prof. Shamir how this result jibes with the willingness of the Israelis polled to create a Palestinian state.  Prof. Shamir explained that this question was designed to measure the perception the Israelis have regarding the Palestinians while the questions about a Palestinian state were questions relating to implementation. IMRA:  So the Israelis don't connect the dots? Prof. Shamir:  Yes. IMRA asked Prof. Shamir why the joint poll of Israelis and Palestinians did not follow up and ask each side what their goal is (namely in the case of the Palestinians, ask them if their goal is to destroy Israel and ask the Israelis if their goal is to extend Israel's  borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens). Prof. Shamir replied that he believes they have never asked such a question and indicated that he considered such a question as a question that did not serve the purposes of the polling. IMRA asked Prof. Shamir if the purpose of the polling is to provide information to decision makers. Prof. Shamir answered in the affirmative. IMRA suggested to Prof. Shamir that the question of what the Israelis and Palestinians see as their own goals was the "elephant in the room" but Prof. Shamir declined to indicate a change in his position against asking these questions in a poll.
So, is that an example of reliability, trustworthiness and of a true refelction of opinion?

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P.S.  This just in:-

IMRA received the following e-mail from Prof. Shamir:

From: shamir Sent: Wednesday, March 28, 2012 12:17 PM To: imra@netvision.net.il Cc: jshamir@mscc.huji.ac.il Subject: Comment to imra

Dear Imra editor As to our Joint palestian Israeli March poll why don't you report the similar high level of threat of Palestinians? and the fact we will also not cofirm this among Israelis? Half the truth is a full lie. shame on you I dare you to publish thim comment on your site Prof. Yaacov Shamir ----

Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: It should be noted that the entire report was indeed included in the report distributed - including the "similar high level of threat of Palestinians". In point of fact, the question to Prof. Shamir was "why the joint poll of Israelis and Palestinians did not follow up and ask each side what their goal is (namely in the case of the Palestinians, ask them if their goal is to destroy Israel and ask the Israelis if their goal is to extend Israel's borders to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expel its Arab citizens)". So IMRA was, indeed, interested in the "whole truth" and not the "half truth". The question for Prof. Shamir is why he does not want to so see if the perceptions that the Israelis and Palestinians have about the goals of their counterparts are accurate or not.

Here is the results from another pollster: 60% The real goal should be to start with two states but then move to it all being one Palestinian state Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research For The Israel Project Questionnaire West Bank and Gaza Strip October 4-15, 2010 854 Respondents, 1020 Unweighted http://www.theisraelproject.org/atf/cf/%7B84dc5887-741e-4056-8d91-a389164bc94e%7D/NOV2010_PALESTINIANPOLLTOPLINE.PDF]
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